Where is Mubarak?

An important question that has yet to be answered...or even asked.

It's been two days since protests and riots have broken out all over Egypt, from Alexandria in the north, to the Sinai desert in the east, to Cairo and then Assiut in the south. Yesterday in Suez, a huge group of protesters over powered the police and burned the ruling National Democratic Party's main building in the city. Communication was severed to the city, including all cell phone service and internet access. Reports trickled in about the rumored-use of live ammunition on the crowd to disperse. These reports are still not confirmed, and I can't find anything on Suez right now except this video of the government building burning:

Protests continued in Cairo yesterday, though in smaller numbers. This video was taken at the main square in front of the Mugam3a (Egypt's centralized "secretary of state" building):

And this little gem from last night in Cairo as well:

Protests have been by and large smaller, less organized, and more sporadic. However, they have increasingly become more violent as the regime clamps down on dissent, firing rubber bullets, tear gas, and sound grenades to disperse the angry masses. The groups have also narrowed down to a certain population yesterday: the shebab (young men). The possibility for violence has increased as yesterday shows, with women and children reportedly mostly absent from the demonstrations. Police have been reportedly getting so angry with protesters that they were ripping large pieces of concrete off the road and hurling them at protesters. I'm shocked that through all of this, only 6 people have been killed. I'm not surprised that over 800 have so far been imprisoned according to human rights groups.  

concrete hurled:

http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/01/26/egyptian-riot-police-clash-with-demonstrators/

Here are some pictures, courtesy of Time:

In front of the Mugama3a: January 25, 2011

President Mubarak

Protesters Praying at Sundown

First day of protests: Downtown Cairo

Time has the situation right, and where it's headed:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2044558,00.html

So far today, the Egyptian stock market has closed. It fell almost 6.5% in the first 15 minutes, or about the same amount it fell ALL DAY yesterday. The Egyptian pound is falling against the dollar like mad. 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EGP

What do people want? Here's a list of demands:

This youth opposition coalition was the main organising force behind Tuesday's demonstrations. It started the call for the "day of anger" on Tuesday, 25 January, citing a list of demands on its website. They included the departure of the interior minister, an end to the restrictive emergency law, and a rise in the minimum wage. The movement is urging Egyptians to "take to the streets and keep going until the demands of the Egyptian people have been met".

Courtesy of BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12290167

Calls have, however, been largely centered around the denouncement of the regime in general and for Hosni Mubarak to leave. These voices have been growing louder.

In addition, the oppositional candidate hopeful for next year's presidential elections is flying back to Egypt today from a self-imposed exile in Austria. What does that mean? I can only speculate. In a move that is reminiscent of the return of Ayatollah Khomeini to Iran during the 1979 Iranian Revolution from France, Al-Baradei is flying back to Egypt to support the protesters and march with them against Hosni Mubarak's regime. This may drive out more protesters who support him; this may be the "leader" or at least the "face" of leadership that this movement needs to pick up speed and gravity to ouster the National Democratic Party from power and lead Egypt to change. I keep thinking, however, about the cab driver a couple months ago: "مش عايز البرادعي؛ هو عايش برّى ومش هيعرف أنا عايز أي" (I don't want al-Baradei, he's lived abroad and he won't know what I want." There is dissent against al-Baradei as well, as he is seen as disconnected from the daily struggles of Egyptians. He's not the "common man". But we'll see; having him return certainly puts a promising twist on these events and could give the opposition that organization and "push" it needs to confront the Egyptian security forces. According to CNN, he will participate on Friday after prayer, along with the Muslim Brotherhood, which has largely stayed out of the conflict. Their participation, however, worries me. So far, this movement has been about "Egyptians" and a united, national rise against the regime. Throwing in the moderate Islamist group could put a religious spin on the conflict, perhaps alienating the 10% Christian minority. Worst case scenario, the movement falls apart as unity gives way to sectarian divisions. On the other hand, their participation would add a concrete backbone to the movement as it is the most popular grassroots political and social organization in Egypt. This will indeed fuel and reinforce the movement. 

Traditionally in Muslim countries, the mosque plays a crucial role in politics and social gatherings. It is a place that is usually out of reach of the state and its security forces, and for good reason. Interfering in the gathering of people to pray in one of the most pious regions on the planet would lead to a direct confrontation between the population and the government. It would be political suicide to interfere with the inner workings of your typical moderate mosque. Tomorrow is Friday, which means it is the Muslim holy day (like Sunday for Christians, Saturday for Jews). This furnishes the opposition and angry protesters the perfect protection to gather without being interrupted or dispersed by security and police. The situation has the potential for better organization and more citizens turning out than Tuesday. Coupled with al-Baradei's return and the participation of the Muslim Brotherhood, I expect the protests to be huge, and the future uncertain. 

I can't stop refreshing Twitter (which seems to be working again) and Facebook pages covering the events in Egypt (especially R.N.N), and I just started filing a CNN i-Report because the Western media outlets seem to be ignoring this country and focusing instead on Oscar nominees. 

The government assures that these protests will amount to nothing and Egypt is "stable". Even the US is starting to doubt this, and called for Mubarak to implement wide sweeping reforms. The US stake in this conflict is huge. They don't want to see their strongest ally in the region ousted, but they fear that a stubborn, unresponsive Egyptian government will lead directly to that. The US position on Egypt has taken a rhetorical 180. Israel earlier pledged its support for the Mubarak government, and for good reason. The treaty between the 2 countries that have kept peace since 1973 could be at risk, depending on whether or not the current government falls and who takes over? The scary Islamists? I doubt it. If anyone, I fear that the military would intervene as interim government. I hope I'm wrong. This is what happened in 1952 when Nasser rose to power and the King was ousted. Hopefully, if the government does fall, the military will be more responsive to the people and recognize the need for democracy and effective, transparent governance. Fingers crossed on so many levels. 

On the way to the airport yesterday, Zenit said that people weren't being allowed to gather in the squares, and there were police crawling everywhere. She said that people were gathered in small concentrations, and tearing down and burning pictures of Mubarak all over Cairo. Today, there were reports that people weren't even present in Tahrir square, where the main protest took place Tuesday. That's seems so odd.

Tomorrow, I'm going to go down to Sidi Basher district to watch what unfolds after Prayer. I expect, with all the indicators and conditions ripe, tomorrow will explode. I still can't believe that the Egyptian monster of discontent and dissent has begun to shake the once-thought indestructible and stable foundations of Egyptian government control. Don't worry, I'll be careful. You know me ;)